Editorial: What at stake post SCO summit

The Indian foreign policy is at a crossroads and also arguably at an inflexion point as Prime Minister Narendra Modi returned from the Heads of State Council meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation in Tianjin. The summit happened at a time when the global order is witnessing a fundamental shift and a major disruptive change triggered by the US and its unpredictable and whimsical President. It is not clear yet as to what will be the shape of things to come, as India had to make friendly overtures to its powerful neighbour, China, which supported Pakistan during Operation Sindoor, and with whom India has had skirmishes over unresolved border issues.

On the other hand, India’s relationship with Russia is on a slightly better footing. Despite India’s long and time-tested relationship with Russia since the 1971 India-USSR treaty, New Delhi appears to have gone out of its way to cosy up to the US and Trump, hoping to set right the “imbalance” created by past Indian governments. In the process, Modi broke a few established norms. It seems the chickens have come home to roost for India, with Trump making exaggerated claims regarding mediating the India-Pakistan ceasefire and later imposing punitive tariffs. In hindsight, India appears to have erred in its reading and assessment of Trump 2.0 and the post-Biden US.

All eyes will be on the Quad Summit to be hosted by India later this year, as one of the underlying and unstated objectives of the multilateral organisation was to counter the growing influence of China in the Indo-Pacific region. Already, there are reports that Trump would not be attending it. India should not tie itself in knots in trying to be friendly with an old rival country like China, and also not to be seen as antagonising its friend-turned-rival US, despite the recent unsavoury developments.

There is an argument and a criticism that some of the problems faced by India can be traced to the strategy of leveraging foreign policy, especially foreign visits, for building the image of Narendra Modi as a global leader and turning his frequent foreign visits into fodder for domestic consumption and for electoral gains. Secondly, political leaders such as prime ministers and chief ministers visit other countries seeking investments or to promote trade. Now the US is accusing India of lining the pockets of influential business houses close to the powers that be, and however wrong or misplaced the contention may be, it does complicate the situation to India’s disadvantage.

Now is the time for India to step back and recalibrate its foreign policy in a gradual manner instead of letting the pendulum swing from the US to China. If the US turned out to be unpredictable under Trump, China under Xi Jinping is more known for making cold and calculated moves and being ruthless in extracting the pound of flesh. India needs to tread with caution. Especially, as Beijing has been adamant in metaphorically not budging an inch either on the borders or at the negotiation table beyond uttering platitudes. New Delhi, therefore, should take the recent developments as a blessing in disguise and use them to craft a foreign policy with a long-term vision and not just short-term pragmatism and one that is truly based on strategic autonomy.