India-US trade negotiations key to boost stock market sentiment: Experts

NEW DELHI: The new financial year (FY26) has commenced on a subdued note, largely driven by the imposition of higher-than-anticipated tariffs by the US, market experts said on Saturday, adding that any constructive developments arising from the ongoing India–US bilateral trade negotiations could serve as a supportive catalyst for the market.

Sectors like IT and metals have underperformed relative to the broader market, reflecting growing concerns over the outlook for the US economy and potential retaliatory trade actions by other countries.

According to Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments Limited, investors are expected to closely monitor any countermeasures implemented by global trade partners, which could further exacerbate geopolitical and economic uncertainty.

This cautious sentiment is reflected in the sustained rally in gold and bond prices, underscoring a pronounced shift toward safe-haven assets.

Meanwhile, benchmark indices extended their losing streak to a second session on Friday, falling over a per cent each, as a risk-off sentiment took over global markets amid fears of a trade war on the back of US President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs, according to a Bajaj Broking Research note.

Nifty was down 345.65 points or 1.49 per cent at 22,904.45. Investors fear that aggressive trade policies by US would lead to retaliatory measures from other countries, escalating into a full-scale trade war. Such an outcome could disrupt global supply chains and slow economic growth.

The broader markets witnessed sharp decline, with the Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Small cap 100 declining by 2.91 per cent and 3.56 per cent, respectively. All the sectoral indices traded with sharp cuts, with the IT, Auto, Pharma, PSU Bank, Realty, Oil and Gas and metals gauges losing 6 per cent to 3 per cent.

Index is currently placed around the key support area of 22,700-22,800, holding above the same will be crucial for pullback to materialise towards last week high 23,565 in coming week.

"Failure to hold above the support area of 22,700 can lead to extended decline towards 22,300 levels. Along with the development on US tariff policies, market participant will also keep a close eye on the RBI monetary policy outcome and resumption of Q4 FY25 earnings season in the coming week,” said Bajaj Broking Research.

Investor attention is also firmly fixed on the upcoming MPC meeting, with the benchmark interest rate decision expected next week.

A favourable outcome could benefit rate-sensitive sectors. In addition, key macroeconomic indicators — namely India’s inflation figures and US jobless claims — will be closely watched, as they are likely to offer critical insights into the underlying economic conditions in both regions, said experts.

Meanwhile, market focus is gradually shifting toward the upcoming corporate earnings season. The initial outlook remains subdued, with the risk of further downward revisions to earnings growth, largely due to tepid demand and continued margin pressures.