QUAKE-WRACKED: Does this augur end of Myanmar's junta?

NEW DELHI: The dust from the devastating earthquake Friday was still churning in Myanmar when an existential question swirled into the mix: Could this fatal clash of tectonic plates, which added yet another layer of trauma to a country already plagued by civil war, also portend the demise of Myanmar’s ruling junta?

The earthquake, known to have killed at least 2,000, struck a day after Myanmar’s military regime celebrated the country’s 80th Armed Forces Day with a parade in Naypyitaw, the capital purpose-built by a previous group of generals.

The sequence of events was hard to ignore.

Omens and rumours have long been prized in an authoritarian country with little free flow of information. When the ruling generals grabbed power four years ago, they sealed off the country and reverted to a reverence of superstition and propaganda. And earthquakes do figure into astrological almanacs that are well thumbed in Myanmar. A popular version states that an earthquake in March signals the destruction of cities, while one in July is an augury of kings and rulers deposed.

The junta’s stronghold remains in the cities, like Mandalay, the second-largest in the country and one of the hardest hit by the earthquake. Daw Marlar Myint, 89, said this was the worst natural disaster she had ever experienced. A retired school principal, she is not waiting until July to cast her prediction.

“We have a saying that a massive earthquake like this is nature’s way of punishing a cruel and corrupt ruler,” she said. “After killing so many people, Min Aung Hlaing is now facing the judgment of nature.

“Even the bones of those he murdered are trembling,” she added.

Since Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing overthrew Myanmar’s elected government in 2021, civil war has flared in this Southeast Asian country. The majority of territory is now in resistance hands, with the military fortified in the big cities. The junta has terrorized civilian areas with airstrikes outpaced in recent months only by those rained on the Gaza Strip.

For most of its postcolonial history, Myanmar, previously known as Burma, has been ruled by military dictatorships. Generations of generals have relied on fortunetellers and astrologers to guide their policy decisions. A former junta chief consulted a dwarf who spoke through her sister. (That sister continued to prognosticate after her sibling died, but her prophesies lost authenticity, according to those who initially paid a lot of money for her solo consultation sessions.)

One former spy chief collected white elephants (the real, live kind) to burnish his power. An earlier junta leader was so superstitious about the number nine that he denominated the country’s currency by it, including 45 and 90 kyat notes. And Min Aung Hlaing, the current military chief, has consecrated temples and a giant Buddha in Naypyitaw to burnish his reputation. He has collected white elephants, too.

For the generals, perhaps the most consequential prophesy came in 2005. That is when seers determined the precise timing most auspicious for beginning a secret move of Myanmar’s capital from Yangon to an as-yet-unnamed construction site in the centre of the country. After consultations with fortunetellers, trucks began a convoy north to what would soon be called Naypyitaw, or the abode of kings.

Today, the new capital is defended by hills and is invulnerable to attack by sea, unlike Yangon. When Cyclone Nargis slammed into the old capital and the nearby Irrawaddy Delta in 2008, leaving more than 130,000 people dead or missing, Naypyitaw was unscathed. The generals celebrated their bunkered capital, with its grand boulevards, massive ministries and penguins on ice (again, the real, live kind).

But Friday’s earthquake was not so benign to Naypyitaw. Government ministries cracked. Portraits of top leaders, including of Min Aung Hlaing, fell to the floor. The air traffic control tower in the capital toppled, killing at least seven people, according to Myanmar state media.

In hills not too far away, rebel forces are watching. With fewer high buildings in the territory they control, the earthquake Friday had less effect on them. But even as residents of Mandalay and other urban areas, like Sagaing and Kyaukse, dug through the rubble with their bare hands, prying out each brick to get closer to possible survivors, the Myanmar military resumed its old habits.

On Friday evening, in the northern Shan state, which borders the Mandalay region, junta fighter jets dropped bombs on Naung Lin village, which is held by the rebels. There were no casualties this time, but sorties two days before killed four people in nearby villages. And a week and a half before that, 10 people sheltering in a seminary in the same township died in aerial raids.

“I just can’t believe they did airstrikes at the same time as the earthquake,” said Lway Yal Oo, a Naung Lin resident. “Min Aung Hlaing is creating a killing field in Myanmar.”

The New York Times