Closing Gap: Saudi supports Trump’s Iran deal. But why?

Ten years ago, when President Barack Obama and other leaders reached a deal with Iran to limit its nuclear program, Saudi Arabia was dismayed.

Saudi officials called it a “weak deal” that had only emboldened the kingdom’s regional rival, Iran. They cheered when President Donald Trump withdrew from the agreement a few years later.

Now, as a second Trump administration negotiates with Iran on a deal that might have very similar contours to the previous one, the view from Saudi Arabia looks quite different.

The kingdom’s Foreign Ministry issued a statement recently saying that it hoped the talks, mediated by neighbouring Oman, would enhance “peace in the region and the world.”

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman even dispatched his brother, defense minister Prince Khalid bin Salman, to Tehran, where he was received warmly by Iranian officials dressed in military regalia. He then hand-delivered a letter to Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, a man whom Crown Prince Mohammed once derided as making “Hitler look good.”

What changed? Relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran have warmed over the past decade. As important, Saudi Arabia is in the middle of an economic diversification program intended to transform the kingdom from being overly dependent on oil into a business, technology and tourism hub. The prospect of Iranian drones and missiles flying over Saudi Arabia because of regional tensions poses a serious threat to that plan.

“Their mindset is different today,” said Kristin Smith Diwan, a senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, a research group. “Under Obama, the Gulf States feared US and Iran rapprochement that would isolate them. Under Trump, they fear US and Iran escalation that would target them.”

Iran and the US wrapped up a second round of diplomatic talks over Tehran’s nuclear activities Saturday, setting an agenda for rapid-paced negotiations. Trump has been vague about the objectives of the negotiations, other than to repeat that Iran must never get a nuclear bomb. But Iranian officials say the deal taking shape would not require them to dismantle the country’s nuclear infrastructure.

Arab states including Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, Qatar and Bahrain have all welcomed the talks, preferring diplomacy to an escalating conflict. “These talks are gaining momentum and now even the unlikely is possible,” Oman’s foreign minister, Badr Albusaidi, wrote Saturday on the social platform X.

The negotiations come against a backdrop of tensions across the Middle East, as US airstrikes target the Iran-backed Houthi militia in Yemen and Israel continues bombing the Gaza Strip. Last month, Trump said he would bomb Iran if it did not reach a deal over its nuclear program.

Israel had planned to strike Iranian nuclear sites as soon as next month, but was waved off by Trump in recent weeks in favor of negotiating a deal with Tehran to limit its nuclear program, according to US administration officials and others briefed on the discussions.

“More than ever, Arab Gulf States are status quo powers in search of lasting stability, a prerequisite for achieving their lofty economic visions,” said Firas Maksad, MD, Middle East and North Africa practice, Eurasia Group, a political risk consulting group. “Their strong preference is for Iran’s destabilizing activities and its nuclear program to be curtailed through diplomacy.”

Sunni Muslim-led Saudi Arabia and Shiite Muslim-majority Iran had long backed opposite sides in regional conflicts, including a grinding war in Yemen that precipitated one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises. The two countries had no diplomatic relations from 2016 to 2023, espousing open hostility. Crown Prince Mohammed has repeatedly threatened that if Iran obtains a nuclear weapon, Saudi Arabia will, too. (Separately, the Trump administration has revived talks over a deal that would give Saudi Arabia access to US nuclear technology and potentially allow it to enrich uranium.) But in 2023, Iran and Saudi Arabia announced a formal reconciliation, mediated by China. By then, Crown Prince Mohammed’s foreign policy focus had shifted toward calming regional conflicts.

A decade ago, Gulf leaders felt sidelined in the negotiations. This time, Iran has conducted regional outreach, said Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House, a research institute.

“What was striking after the first round of negotiations is that the Iranian foreign minister reached out to counterparts, including in Bahrain,” she said. “Iran wants to have regional buy-in and Gulf States are not only supportive of the negotiations but looking to prevent any escalation that could have implications for their economic and national security.”

@The New York Times