Editorial: Get off the escalation ladder

Since the volleys exchanged by India and Pakistan on Wednesday have given both countries something to crow about to their respective people, it is now imperative that they heed the advice of the world and de-escalate tensions. India has given ample indication that it wants to. In his press briefing after the airstrikes on nine targets in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir and Pakistani territory, Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri said India calibrated its action to be “proportionate and non-escalatory”. In other words, the Narendra Modi government designed its response to make a strong point but press it no further.

Hopefully, Pakistan will take a similar approach. Apparently, Wednesday morning’s military exchanges did contain something for Islamabad to clutch at and show to its people as proof of valour. Its ministers appeared on international media on Wednesday night to claim that the Pakistani military downed three — or four, or five, or six, depending on the claimant — Indian fighter aircraft, including a Rafale and a Sukhoi, during the post-midnight drama. There was no confirmation of these losses from the Indian side, but even if only imaginary, the ‘successes’ will serve to buttress Islamabad’s boast to its people that it did not sit idly by as India bombed targets across the Line of Control.

Wisely, New Delhi did not bother to deny or even acknowledge this supposed loss to its Air Force. There was no conclusive proof available that Pakistan’s Chinese-made jet fighters and anti-aircraft defences managed to down half a dozen Indian planes during the short 25-minute raid. Implausible though it may seem, it’s something for Pakistan to cling to and hopefully will suffice to soothe public passions in that country. Islamabad has vowed a military response yet, but it would be unwise to prod India up the escalation ladder.

It is welcome therefore that many countries have urged India and Pakistan to step back from the brink of war. The Secretary-General of the United Nations and the leaders of the governments of the UK, France, UAE and Qatar have called for steps to scale back the confrontation. Even the President of the US has offered his deal-making talents to bring about peace between the neighbours (but his good offices are best avoided). The foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia and Iran have rushed to New Delhi to broker peace. This augurs well for the days ahead. India and Pakistan must use these mediatory offers to defuse the confrontation.

For India, the aftermath of the airstrikes must bring about a reckoning whether precipitate actions like surgical strikes, air raids and hot pursuits really have any strategic value in terms of rooting out cross-border terrorism. Evidence from the surgical strikes of 2016, the Balakot raid of 2019 and the nine raids of Wednesday night suggests that there may be temporary tactical gains but no lasting consequences. The surgical strikes of 2016 did not prevent Pulwama in 2019. Nor did the Balakot air raid of 2019 deter the terrorists who carried out the Pahalgam massacre last month.

While a muscular response may impress domestic audiences and deter terrorists a bit, it will not root out the problem. For that, India needs to combine military action with resolute diplomacy, astute economic management, and the rule of law and justice throughout its territory.