Ongoing heatwave in India, Pakistan human-driven, says study

CHENNAI: An analysis by ClimaMeter has attributed the ongoing heatwave conditions over India and Pakistan mostly to human-driven climate change. The study followed reports of severe heatwave conditions in both countries in the last two weeks.

According to the report, parts of Pakistan, particularly Balochistan, saw temperatures soar up to 49°C (120°F). This unusual early arrival of the heatwave caught many off guard, with residents experiencing power outages lasting up to 16 hours, exacerbating the impact of the extreme heat. In India, the capital New Delhi reported temperatures surpassing 40°C (104°F) on multiple occasions, up to 5°C above the seasonal average, the report said.

During the study, the researchers analysed how events similar to the meteorological conditions leading to the April 2025 India and Pakistan heat wave have changed in the present (1987–2023) compared to what they would have looked like if they had occurred in the past (1950–1986) in the region.

"The surface pressure over Pakistan shows not much change, with a slight decrease of up to 2 hPa (Hectopascal). Temperature changes show conditions that are up to +4°C warmer in the present compared to the past. Precipitation changes show no significant differences. Wind speed changes indicate slightly windier conditions, with an increase of +4 km/h, or up to +10%," the report said.

The report added that similar past events suggest that the meteorological patterns associated with the heatwave occur with a similar frequency now as they did in the past. Changes in urban areas reveal that New Delhi, Jaipur, and Islamabad are experiencing warmer conditions, with Islamabad being the most affected, seeing temperatures up to +3°C higher than in the past.

"In South Asia specifically, the frequency and duration of heatwaves have increased, associated with Indian Ocean basin-wide warming and frequent El Ninos, leading to severe impacts on agriculture and human discomfort. The combination of global warming and population growth in already warm cities in regions like India is a major driver for increased heat exposure, with urban heat islands elevating temperatures within cities relative to their surroundings. We interpret the April 2025 India and Pakistan heatwave as an event driven by very exceptional meteorological conditions whose characteristics can mostly be ascribed to human-driven climate change," the report explained.