TN’s energy requirement to nearly double to 2.50 lakh MU in 10 years

CHENNAI: Tamil Nadu’s power requirement is expected to nearly double over the next 10 years, reaching 2,49,580 million units from 1,26,163 million units in 2023-24, according to the Report on Resource Adequacy Plan for the state of Tamil Nadu (2024-25 to 2034-35) from the Central Electricity Authority.

According to the report, the state’s peak power demand is likely to increase from 20,701 MW in 2024-25 to 35,507 MW in 2034-35, an increase of 71%.

“Tamil Nadu is likely to witness energy deficit throughout the study –from 2024-25 to 2034-35 with the existing, planned capacity including the capacity required to meet Renewable Purchase Obligations (RPO). It was observed that the total unserved energy in the year 2034-35 is likely to be around 45,587 MU. Further, it is expected that the shortfall would be maximum during the non-solar hours from October to April,” the report observed.

As of March 31, 2024, the total contracted power generation capacity for Tamil Nadu was 36,593 MW including 39% of fossil fuel-based generation plants. As per the Resource Adequacy studies, the total projected contracted capacity for the year 2034- 35 is 98,140 MW, which consists of 77% of non-fossil fuel-based generation sources including solar, wind, pumped storage and hydro.

Resource Adequacy studies have been carried out for Tamil Nadu based on the inputs received from SLDC (Tamil Nadu) while fulfilling the RPO trajectory. The study suggests the optimal resource mix till 2034-35 taking into account all technical and financial parameters associated with capacities.

To meet the demand, at least cost and generation capacity expansion studies for the period 2025-26 to 2034-35, for the State of Tamil Nadu have been carried out to minimise the total system cost of generation including the cost of anticipated future investments while fulfilling all the technical/financial constraints associated with various power generation technologies to meet the demand reliably, the report said.

The study emphasises the need for significant capacity additions to meet the Renewable Purchase Obligations (RPOs) set by the Ministry of Power. Tamil Nadu will need to contract an additional 14,737 MW of renewable energy capacity by 2034-35, including 5,500 MW from Wind, 5,500 MW from Solar and 3,737 MW from Distributed Renewable Energy (DRE).

Despite these expansions, the study projects that renewable energy will still fall short of meeting future demand, with a deficit of 16.74%by 2034-35.

The study also indicates that coal-fired power plants will continue to play a crucial role, with 7,000 MW of additional coal capacity required by 2034-35 to maintain grid stability. However, the Plant Load Factor (PLF) of these coal plants is expected to decline to around 54% by 2028-29, reflecting the state’s shift towards a renewable-dominated energy mix.

So, the study recommends 11,680 MW of storage capacity, including pumped storage and battery energy storage systems to ensure a reliable power supply. Additionally, Tamil Nadu will need to engage in short-term, medium-term, and bilateral power purchase agreements to bridge supply gaps, particularly during peak demand months.

While Tamil Nadu is projected to face deficits during peak demand seasons, it is also expected to generate surplus power during the monsoon months (June to September), which coincide with peak wind generation months. The study suggests that Tamil Nadu could explore banking and power trading agreements with other states to optimise surplus capacity and reduce overall power costs.