Digital crossroads: Kazakhstan struggles with e-independence

Nowmay Opalinski & Romain Fontugne

In early September, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev announced an ambitious plan to transform his country into a “fully digital nation” and regional digital hub. In some respects, Kazakhstan has already made remarkable progress toward these goals, with an internet-penetration rate of around 93% – comparable to Germany’s. But despite its relatively well-developed infrastructure, Kazakhstan has strategic dependencies and vulnerabilities that could limit its digital ambitions.

Kazakhstan’s internet ecosystem reflects its position as Central Asia’s leading economy. As a new Internet Society report shows, the country operates 212 autonomous systems, more than twice as many as more populous Uzbekistan, and has been allocated about 3.2 million IPv4 addresses – millions more than any other Central Asian country.

Two major telecommunications groups dominate the landscape. State-owned Kazakhtelecom serves approximately 38% of users, while VEON Group controls another significant portion through Beeline and TNS-Plus. This duopoly has enabled rapid deployment of infrastructure, but concentrated ownership limits innovation.

Likewise, the government operates a monopoly over international traffic through the state-managed KAZ-GOV-IX, which handles more than 350 Gbps of traffic in 18 cities. While operational efficiency is high, competition – an essential ingredient of a successful digital economy – is not.

Moreover, Kazakhstan is dependent on Russian internet infrastructure – a legacy of Soviet planning. The country has 17 fibre-optic connections with Russia (laid along historic railway lines), compared to just two with China and five with its other neighbours. Moreover, despite direct connections to global providers in Frankfurt and Hong Kong, most Kazakh internet service providers (ISPs) rely on Russian providers such as Rostelecom and Transtelecom. Owing to these factors, as well as consumer demand for Russian-language content, an estimated 95% of Kazakhstan’s international internet traffic flows through Russia.

This dependency creates many vulnerabilities. When major American providers Cogent and Lumen stopped serving Russian ISPs following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Central Asian internet users faced potential network degradation, underscoring how geopolitical tensions can threaten digital connectivity.

More worryingly, Russia’s efforts to territorialise the “Russian segment of the internet,” which involves expanding the government’s authority to block and regulate online content, could affect Kazakhs’ access to Russian-language websites. For example, Russia’s largest search engine (Yandex) and leading social-media platform (VKontakte) have built a strong presence in Kazakhstan.

Recognising these vulnerabilities, the Kazakh government launched the $1.1 billion “Accessible Internet” project, which aims to upgrade infrastructure and develop international transit capabilities. Its centrepiece is the Trans-Caspian Fibre-Optic Cable Project, scheduled for completion by the end of 2026. By connecting Kazakhstan to Azerbaijan, this so-called Digital Silk Way will provide an alternative route to Europe via Georgia and Turkey that bypasses both Russian and Chinese networks. In the long run, this data corridor will also allow Kazakh ISPs to extract transit revenue from traffic between Europe and Asia.

Another diversification strategy is to route more traffic through China Telecom’s Transit Silk Road, which connects Frankfurt to Hong Kong. But that risks swapping one dependency for another, because it would subject Kazakh data to Chinese filtering and surveillance systems.

A third alternative is satellite internet. While the government has collaborated with Starlink and Eutelsat-OneWeb on projects to improve rural connectivity, it has criminalised the use of these services by private citizens. At issue is Kazakhstan’s regulations regarding content-monitoring compliance, which require telecom operators to work closely with authorities to filter and block content. The government has also shut down internet access multiple times on national security grounds in recent years. It would be difficult, if not impossible, to force international satellite providers like Starlink to comply with these orders.

Ultimately, the Kazakh government’s desire for control may be its biggest barrier to digital progress. Prioritising state oversight over market efficiency undermines competitiveness. For example, the January 2022 internet shutdown, in response to widespread civil unrest, damaged Kazakhstan’s reputation as a reliable digital partner.

The government’s efforts to bypass encryption protocols have had a similar effect. The authorities have repeatedly pressured citizens to install root certificates enabling state surveillance of supposedly secure internet traffic. The major browsers have blocked the use of these certificates, leading to error messages that degrade user experience.

Maintaining a tight grip on the digital realm has other downsides. Restrictions on foreign ownership discourage international investment, while government control of internet exchange points prevents the development of neutral interconnection facilities.

The digital future of Kazakhstan depends on whether the government loosens its regulatory hold on the internet. Digital hubs must offer openness, predictability, and technical neutrality – characteristics that conflict with authoritarian rule. With its late entry into the digital race, Kazakhstan must demonstrate exceptional execution to overtake Azerbaijan, Turkey, and Georgia, which are similarly vying to become regional hubs, and to compete with Singapore and the United Arab Emirates, which offer more established and attractive frameworks.

Kazakhstan’s experience offers lessons for middle powers navigating digital transformation in an increasingly fragmented world. Technical infrastructure, while important, cannot overcome political and regulatory constraints that impede efforts to build trust with ISPs and users. True digital independence requires embracing the internet’s core values: openness and competition.

Nowmay Opalinski is Head of Asian Affairs at Cassini, a Paris-based consultancy; Romain Fontugne is Deputy Director of the Internet Initiative Japan (IIJ)