Editorial: Trump and the Teflon king

It’s a paradox that Narendra Modi has remained an unchallenged leader despite facing significant adversities during his 11 years in power. Demonetisation, COVID-19 and the 2024 Lok Sabha election all posed serious questions, and yet, each time, he stayed unscathed inside his Teflon cocoon. But now, the botched tariff negotiations with the US and the unexpected outcomes from Operation Sindoor are combining to turn the spotlight on the deeper fragilities of his leadership — particularly his overreliance on optics, disregard for institutional process and the reduction of foreign policy to personal relationships.

In light of the 25% tariffs unilaterally imposed by the US on Wednesday, with another 25% penalty due to take effect on August 27, it is evident that the Modi government revealed its hand too early in the negotiations with the Trump administration. Even before formal talks had gained traction, India announced several one-sided tariff reductions on American goods in the Union Budget in February: lower duties on high-end automobiles, premium alcoholic beverages, and some agriculture imports. A key clause in the Civil Liability for Nuclear Damage Act, 2010, was offered to be removed to limit the indemnity of American companies selling nuclear reactor components to India. Simultaneously, there were signals that India was open to scaling up defence purchases from the US.

These concessions were likely aimed at earning goodwill from a protectionist American president, but they only fed his perception of a soft negotiating stance by India. Predictably, instead of meeting India halfway, the White House doubled down and hardened its demands to open up India's tightly protected agriculture and dairy sectors. By front-loading concessions, Modi’s team weakened its leverage and allowed pressure to mount, precisely in sectors where India can least afford it.

This was further compounded by a misreading of Donald Trump. While other world leaders hedged their bets while his erratic ways played out, Modi set store by the remnants of the Howdy Modi spirit. That gambit may have paid off in Trump’s first term, but counted for little in the second stint. India now finds itself awkwardly tethered to a man whose foreign policy is openly personal and transactional but not quite geopolitical. So, the common cause of anti-China alignment that Modi gambled on when Joe Biden was in the White House did not quite do the job this time. Modi’s overt fondness for Trump, in fact, narrowed India’s diplomatic options. Having placed all his chips on personal rapport, Modi now finds himself unrequited, with few institutional buffers to absorb the shock.

Then there’s Operation Sindoor — a mission sold to the Indian public as a precision military strike on terrorist infrastructure across the LoC. Instead, its gains to India’s security are questionable. It now seems to have been a rudderless escalation whose outcomes succeeded only in putting Pakistan in an advantageous position vis-à-vis Trump’s tariffs while releasing it from its economic and geopolitical isolation.

Modi’s response to the tariff setback has been to summon India’s spirit of defiance. In his speech at the MS Swaminathan Centenary Conference on Wednesday, he vowed not to compromise the interests of “farmers, cattle farmers and fisher people”. But then he proceeded to say, “I know that, personally, I will have to pay a huge price. But I am ready for this.” One might say the PM is again making it all about himself, but there’s some implied truth in it. It is about him now. It has always been.