Mind myths: Rethinking link between stress and conspiracy
We preregistered our hypotheses, predicting that increased distress would lead to stronger conspiracy beliefs and that such beliefs would, in turn, increase distress.
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• A lot of research has focused on why people believe in conspiracy theories — and how they might climb back out of the rabbit hole.
Conspiracies do happen. The Watergate scandal of the 1970s, which led to the resignation of U.S. President Richard Nixon, is the most infamous example. Questioning authority and official narratives should be encouraged.
But some beliefs clearly contradict evidence. Recent research found about 9% of New Zealanders and 10% of Australians agreed with the false claim that fluoride is intentionally added to water to make people less intelligent and easier to control.
What draws people to conspiracies like these?
A leading explanation is that such beliefs are linked to psychological distress — anxiety, depression, or stress. Our new research explores whether distress actually causes people to adopt conspiracy beliefs. We found very limited evidence for that link.
The “existential threat model” of conspiracy theories suggests psychological distress can make people more likely to embrace conspiracies as a way to explain distressing events. Once the belief forms, distress worsens, creating a vicious cycle in which anxiety fuels conspiratorial thinking and conspiracies, in turn, deepen anxiety. The model also predicts these beliefs intensify when a disliked group — such as political elites — becomes salient as people search for meaning.
While studies have shown a correlation between distress and conspiracy beliefs, correlation does not prove causation. Some analyses of long-term data have failed to support this model, and until now, no one had directly tested it.
We set out to do so through a longitudinal survey — a design that can clarify the direction of cause and effect. Our sample included 995 participants from New Zealand, Australia, and the United Kingdom. Each month from September 2022 to February 2023, participants completed surveys measuring their agreement with 11 conspiracy theories and their levels of anxiety, depression, and stress.
We preregistered our hypotheses, predicting that increased distress would lead to stronger conspiracy beliefs and that such beliefs would, in turn, increase distress.
The results did not support either idea. We found minimal evidence that elevated distress increased belief in conspiracy theories — and no evidence that believing in conspiracies caused greater distress.
Our findings suggest conspiracy beliefs may reflect relatively stable worldviews rather than temporary reactions to distress. This challenges the idea that stress relief could reduce conspiracy thinking. If distress isn’t driving belief, targeting stress is unlikely to help.
We also found no indication that conspiracy beliefs cause short-term harm to mental health through stress, anxiety, or depression. This counters the assumption that such beliefs inherently damage psychological well-being. However, conspiracy beliefs can still be harmful in other ways — such as spreading misinformation or eroding trust in institutions.
Overall, our study challenges the notion of a “vicious cycle” linking distress and conspiratorial thinking. Psychological distress does not appear to push people down the rabbit hole — nor does believing in conspiracies make them more distressed.
Interventions that strengthen critical thinking and analytical reasoning may be far more effective than those aimed at reducing stress.
The Conversation
