Rightward drift: Japan’s conservative glass ceiling

• Sanae Takaichi has made history as Japan’s first female prime minister — but her rise hardly marks a victory for feminist or progressive politics.

Takaichi is a staunch right-wing traditionalist. Her policies are rooted in conservative ideas about gender roles, national identity, and Japan’s historical narrative. She champions economic growth and “traditional values” while opposing immigration, much like right-wing populists elsewhere.

Yet policies that restrict immigration often worsen the very problems they claim to solve — leading to labor shortages and inflation.

Japan, facing a demographic crisis from a plummeting birth rate, is a warning for other developed nations. Its population has declined for 16 straight years. Unless Takaichi moderates her hardline stance, her leadership could deepen Japan’s stagnation.

How Takaichi took power

Earlier this month, Takaichi won the leadership of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). Her ascent was delayed when the LDP’s coalition partner, Komeito, withdrew support amid a political funding scandal.

The LDP lacks a majority in both chambers of the Diet and depends on alliances to govern. After tough negotiations, the right-wing Japan Innovation Party (Ishin) agreed to support her government. Even so, the coalition remains two seats short of a majority in the lower house leaving Takaichi with a fragile, constrained mandate.

Japan’s demographic crisis

Japan’s population peaked at 128 million in 2008 and now sits around 124 million. Its fertility rate fell to a record 1.15 last year. If trends continue, Japan’s population will shrink to 87 million by 2070 and just 63 million by 2100, with only half of that being working age.

The consequences are severe: soaring pension costs, medical burdens, and a shrinking workforce. Critical sectors from education to healthcare already face acute labour shortages.

The immigration fault line

Successive governments have acknowledged the demographic threat but failed to act decisively. Limited programs have brought in foreign workers, yet Japan still lacks large-scale, integrative immigration policies.

Foreign residents now total 3.6 million — just 3% of the population — far lower than in most advanced economies. Still, this modest rise has sparked cultural anxieties and fueled anti-immigrant sentiment. A record number of babies born to foreign mothers — mostly Chinese, Filipino, and Brazilian — has slightly offset the decline in births among Japanese parents.

Tourism has also surged, with 37 million visitors last year. But these visible signs of globalisation have helped energise Japan’s far-right. The ultranationalist Sanseito party has gained traction, pushing the LDP further right to retain conservative voters. Takaichi’s nationalist rhetoric appeals to this base — portraying immigration as a threat to social harmony.

She supports admitting foreign workers only in sectors with severe shortages and under strict conditions: language proficiency, training, and oversight. She opposes mass settlement and political rights for foreign residents. Her framing of foreigners as a potential danger to national cohesion signals continuity, not reform.

Push for pro-natalist policies

Across ageing societies, older voters are particularly receptive to anti-immigrant rhetoric. Japan is no exception. Leaders like Takaichi see electoral gain in defending cultural purity rather than embracing diversity.

The irony is stark: countries most in need of immigrants are often the least willing to welcome them. Instead, conservative governments promote pro-natalist measures — urging women of the dominant ethnic group to have more children — as a “solution” that maintains national homogeneity.

Hungary offers a precedent. Viktor Orbán’s nationalist government has poured about 5% of GDP into family subsidies. Despite an initial rise, Hungary’s birth rate has since fallen again. Japan’s conservatives want to replicate this model rather than open its borders.

Road ahead for Takaichi

Takaichi’s appointment may be historic, but it signals continuity rather than change. Her leadership is unlikely to expand women’s independence or raise birth rates meaningfully. Nor will she push Japan toward genuine immigration reform.

Without a shift toward inclusivity — demographic, cultural, and economic — Japan’s population decline will accelerate. And as the country grows older and smaller, Takaichi’s brand of nationalism may offer emotional comfort to conservatives, but it won’t solve the crisis hollowing out Japan’s future.

The Conversation