Testing limits: Putin challenged Trump in Poland

For the first time in the history of NATO, a member state has been attacked by a rival. The incident involved 19 Russian combat drones (there is no confirmation that they were equipped with warheads), some of which entered Poland from Belarus. The Kremlin must have been aware that casualties were a real possibility (one home was destroyed, but no one was injured).

If Russian tanks had rolled across the border and Russian fighter planes had flown over Poland, no one would doubt that this was an act of aggression. But because the incursion was made by drones, some are raising doubts, despite the fundamental role that drones play in warfare today.

Of course, today’s wars are not declared. Even aggression is not called war – Putin calls his war against Ukraine a “special military operation.” In the case of Russia, this verbal chicanery is nothing new; Russia has been operating in a definitional and legal grey area of its own creation since it first invaded Ukraine in 2014 with its insignia-less soldiers, dubbed “little green men.”

Against the backdrop of what constitutes an attack nowadays, the status of Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which enshrines NATO members’ mutual defence pledge, seems unclear. The treaty does not specify what kind of attack is needed to trigger Article 5, nor even how NATO countries should respond. After all, between a protest note and a military mobilisation, there is a wide spectrum of actions that most countries, far removed from the war, may respond to very differently.

Was the drone incursion part of the biennial Russia-Belarus “Zapad” (West) military exercises, which begin on September 12? Whatever the case, provocations have always been part of Russia's repertoire, and similar military exercises preceded several of Russia’s recent invasions of neighbouring countries, including Ukraine in 2022.

Nonetheless, Russia’s actions came as a surprise to Poland. Politicians and the public still do not fully believe in the possibility of war with Russia. And, judging by the reaction of the Warsaw stock market, which fell by less than 1%, they will continue not to believe.

Prime Minister Donald Tusk emphasised that there is “no reason to claim we’re on the brink of war.” But this is more of an attempt to avoid panic and heightening tensions with Russia. The widespread fear of escalation in the West also applies to Eastern Europe; Poland’s foreign ministry handed a protest note to the Russian embassy.

And yet this was an attack not just on Poland, but on NATO and EU territory. According to Marcin Ogdowski, a leading Polish defence journalist, Dutch F-35 aircraft scrambled to meet the threat, accompanied by an Italian-crewed tanker flying alongside them so that they could refuel and remain at the ready. Polish F-16s and AWACS reconnaissance aircraft also took to the skies, and German Patriot missile batteries, stationed in eastern Poland, were on the alert.

As this threat was being met, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen mentioned the drone attack in her State of the Union address to the European Parliament. She had recently visited Poland’s eastern border with Tusk, and in her speech promised €6 billion ($7 billion) for the creation of an anti-drone wall in Europe (and €150 billion for the SAFE armament program, from which Poland is set to receive €47 billion).

Poland also invoked Article 4 of the NATO treaty and convened an alliance meeting, initially at the level of NATO ambassadors, but intensive consultations among the heads of state of the key allies began immediately.

At the same time, the drone attack tests the unity of Polish leadership in the face of the Russian threat. US President Donald Trump and Polish President Karol Nawrocki are actively trying to keep Tusk’s government away from the White House. Trump has long avoided contact with Tusk, a candid critic, and is insisting that only Nawrocki, a like-minded right-wing populist, may represent Poland in US talks with Russia. But Polish law says otherwise: Foreign policy is conducted exclusively by the government, and the president is bound by the government’s policy.

In formulating Poland’s policy, Sikorski is consulting widely, particularly with Ukraine. When asked by journalists whether Poland was considering Ukraine’s proposal that it shoot down Russian missiles and drones over Ukrainian territory, Sikorski replied, “We will return to this topic. I don’t want to jinx it.”

Such an act would be a real breakthrough, as the West has so far been unwilling to protect Ukraine’s airspace. Sikorski stressed that Putin, by escalating attacks on Ukraine and sending drones into Poland, is “mocking Donald Trump’s peace efforts.”

Along with the drones has come a Russian disinformation blitz aimed at convincing Poles that “Ukraine is dragging Poland into war.” This is perhaps even more dangerous than the drone attack, because the alliance between Poland and Ukraine is what prevents Russia from being able to change the borders in this part of Europe. Both countries treat the other’s independence as a condition of their own. But this is not necessarily obvious to the wider Polish public. Germany, the Czech Republic, and other countries where anti-Ukrainian sentiment is growing should also intensify their efforts to combat disinformation.

Russia’s drone attack is a test not only of Poland’s combat capabilities and the West’s unity, but above all of Trump. Europe certainly passed the test of unity and speed. Several countries immediately offered to send soldiers and equipment: France (several Rafale aircraft), the Czech Republic (a special unit of 100 troops), and the Netherlands (two Patriot systems, a NASAMS system, and 300 soldiers), with similar support offered by Germany, the United Kingdom, Sweden, and others. Against this backdrop, the lack of response from the US seems significant.

Russian President Vladimir Putin followed his red-carpet summit with Trump in Alaska by escalating attacks on Ukraine and provocations on NATO’s eastern flank. So far, when questioned by journalists, Trump has either called such incidents a mistake or simply said that Russian drones are flying too close to Poland. But make no mistake: Putin is testing Trump, whose bias and servility toward Russia have never been more obvious.

Sławomir Sierakowski, founder of the Krytyka Polityczna movement, is a Mercator senior fellow

Project Syndicate