Why India must embrace AI-powered weather forecasting: A call for agricultural transformation

The recent heavy rain in Maharashtra's agricultural heartland has flooded over seven million acres of farmland across 30 districts during this monsoon season alone. From Vidarbha to Marathwada and north Maharashtra to western Maharashtra, the State’s drought-prone areas have experienced heavy rainfall, which has turned fields into lakes and farmers' dreams into despair. This severe flooding has affected over 3.1 million farmers, leading to crop losses worth thousands of crores and highlighting a significant weakness in Maharashtra's and ultimately India's agriculture sector.

The devastation goes beyond numbers. In Pune district, 273 hectares of crops across 63 villages were damaged, impacting 720 farmers whose onion, vegetable, and marigold crops were destroyed at crucial growth stages. Across the State, 6.9 million acres of farmland were lost between August and September, with rainfall exceeding annual averages by 109 per cent. For smallholder farmers in Indapur and Purandar, who invested heavily in fertilizers and pesticides, the losses mean not just a lost season but years of debt and desperation.

India has 146 million agricultural households, with 86% classified as small and marginal farmers who face increasingly unpredictable weather patterns. Maharashtra's recent experiences illustrate a larger crisis where climate change is making weather patterns less reliable, leaving millions of farmers at risk of extreme weather events they cannot foresee or prepare for.

The human cost is staggering. Between 2022 and 2024, 3,090 farmers took their own lives in Marathwada alone – almost three each day – largely due to climate-related agricultural stress. They work on small plots without access to irrigation, facing what experts label the ‘classic catastrophe scenario’: they plant after initial rains only to lose their crops to unexpected dry spells, wiping out their investments in seeds and other inputs.

The answer lies not in accepting unpredictable weather but in using artificial intelligence to change how we predict and respond to it. This summer, 38 million farmers across 13 Indian states received AI-powered monsoon forecasts that predicted weather patterns accurately up to four weeks in advance. This marks the largest use of AI weather forecasting for agriculture ever.

The technology behind this shift is Google's NeuralGCM model, combined with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts' AI Forecasting System. Unlike traditional weather models requiring supercomputers costing $100 million, these AI models can run on a standard laptop while providing better accuracy. The models learn from decades of historical weather data, identifying patterns that traditional methods often overlook, all while respecting the principles of meteorological science.

Google's collaboration with the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers' Welfare is an example of how technology companies can create social benefits. Working with the University of Chicago's Human-Centered Weather Forecasts Initiative, they created a blended forecasting model that merges Google's NeuralGCM with over 100 years of rainfall data from the India Meteorological Department.

The results have been impressive. When this year's monsoon started early but then stalled for 20 days, an unusual occurrence missed by conventional forecasts, the AI models accurately predicted this pause. Farmers like Parasnath Tiwari from Madhya Pradesh received timely SMS alerts that helped them adjust planting decisions, choose more profitable crops, and avoid major losses that would have come from relying on traditional predictions.

The economic impact is significant. Research from the University of Chicago indicates that farmers using these advanced forecasts nearly doubled their annual income by making better planting decisions. Nobel laureate Michael Kremer estimates that spreading AI weather forecasts offers a high return on investment, likely generating more than $100 (Approximately Rs 8,700) for farmers for every dollar the government invests.

The Agriculture Innovation Mechanism for Scale (AIM for Scale), a partnership between the UAE and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, is the next step in scaling weather intelligence for farmers. At COP29, AIM for Scale announced a $1 billion (Approximately Rs 8,300 crore) innovation package to deliver AI-powered weather forecasts to hundreds of millions of farmers across Asia, Latin America, and Africa.

AIM for Scale recognises that making AI-based forecasting accessible can change agriculture in low- and middle-income countries. The programme is collaborating with the Mohamed bin Zayed University of Artificial Intelligence and the University of Chicago to develop AI-based forecasts for crops in 10 countries while designing training for meteorological services in 30 nations.

The initiative works to address gaps in weather services by improving data access, validating forecasts, and promoting AI-based forecast production. By partnering with the World Bank, Asian Development Bank, and other institutions, AIM for Scale aims to create sustainable systems that enable national meteorological services to produce farmer-centered forecasts using AI technology.

India is at a critical moment. The Maharashtra floods serve as both a warning and a chance – a reminder of agriculture's vulnerability to severe weather and a strong argument for adopting AI-powered solutions that can change this vulnerability into resilience.

The government's pioneering AI weather forecasting programme has already shown the potential of this technology, reaching 3.8 crore farmers with accurate, actionable forecasts sent via SMS through the m-Kisan platform. This initiative places India as a leader in using AI weather forecasting to directly benefit farmers but is just the beginning of what's possible.

To expand this success, India must invest in AI infrastructure, partner with technology firms like Google, and integrate with current agricultural advisory systems. The benefits go beyond individual farmers—better weather intelligence can improve food security, stabilise markets, reduce rural distress, and build the climate resilience that India needs to safeguard its agriculture.

As climate change increases weather variability, AI-powered forecasts become not just valuable tools but critical infrastructure for agricultural survival. The choice is clear: India can remain exposed to unpredictable weather or use artificial intelligence to turn uncertainty into informed decision-making. The farmers of Maharashtra and millions more across India are counting on the latter.

The technology is available. The partnerships are forming. The economic rationale is strong. What India needs now is the commitment and ongoing investment to ensure that every farmer, from the smallest to the largest agricultural enterprise, has access to the weather intelligence that can mean the difference between success and hardship, between adapting to climate change and suffering from its effects.

Sunil Madan is consultant, Digital Agriculture, The World Bank; and Dr Badri Narayanan Gopalakrishnan is founder, Infinite Sum Modeling LLC.

(Views are Personal)