TN’s grey reality: More aged people, shrinking youth base

CHENNAI: Tamil Nadu, which is often praised for its achievements in lowering infant mortality and reducing fertility rates, is now confronting the consequences of a rapid demographic transition – an ageing population, shrinking youth base, and imminent economic stagnation.

The Sample Registration System (SRS) Statistical Report 2023 has highlighted this stark demographic reality for the State, noting how 14 per cent of the population is aged 60 years and above, the second highest in the country after Kerala. Among elderly women, the share is even higher at 14.5 per cent, making Tamil Nadu one of the rapidly greying states in India. In urban centres, nearly one in seven residents is now a senior citizen.

Experts caution that this demographic shift will intensify pressure on health infrastructure and social security systems. A population studies researcher from Annamalai University noted that Tamil Nadu's demographic dividend is closing faster than in other states, adding that the growing elderly population would inevitably increase the burden on pensions, healthcare, and long-term care facilities.

The shrinking youth population signals deeper concerns. The State's Total Fertility Rate has fallen to 1.3, well below the replacement level of 2.1 and among the lowest in India, while its Crude Birth Rate is just 12 per 1,000 population, the lowest in the country and significantly below the national average of 18.4. The mean age of fertility stands at 26.5 years, one of the highest in India, indicating that women are having fewer children and at later ages.

Only 24.2 per cent of Tamil Nadu's population is below 14 years, compared with the national figure of 27.4 per cent. This steady decline, coupled with one of India's lowest fertility indicators, points to a narrowing workforce base.

S Vasuki, assistant professor from the Department of Population Studies, Annamalai University, observed, "The increase in elderly numbers is due to advanced healthcare. Meanwhile, more women are educated and working, which delays marriage and pregnancy. Families are largely content with one or two children, as professional and lifestyle pressures discourage larger households."

If this trend persists, it could reduce the sex ratio and create long-term economic consequences, the professor told DT Next.

Economists say the implications for Tamil Nadu are stark. With fewer young people entering the labour force and a growing share of the elderly requiring care, the State risks economic stagnation if corrective measures are not adopted. Senior economist A Vasudevan remarked, "The challenge before Tamil Nadu is no longer population control but population sustainability. Unless the State invests in geriatric care, social welfare, and the skill development of its shrinking youth base, the demographic imbalance could slow economic growth."

The report also exposes rising social vulnerabilities. Tamil Nadu has the highest proportion of widowed, divorced, or separated individuals among major states at 6.8 per cent, nearly double the national average of 3.6 per cent. Demographers attribute this to longer life expectancy, urbanisation, and evolving marital patterns, with elderly women disproportionately affected by loneliness and social isolation.

"Behind these statistics is a human story of vulnerability, especially among older women living alone," PG Vanitha, a Madurai-based sociologist, told this newspaper.

Tamil Nadu’s demographic setbacks (SRS 2023)

* Elderly population rising: 14% of residents are aged 60+, the second highest in India after Kerala (15.1%).

* Shrinking youth base: Only 24.2% of the population is below 14 years, compared to the national average of 27.4%.

* High share of widowed/divorced/separated: 6.8% of the population, almost double the national average of 3.6%.

* Lowest fertility rate: TFR at 1.3, far below the replacement level of 2.1.

* Older motherhood trend: Mean age of fertility at 26.5 years, among the highest in India.

* Economic risks: Fewer young workers and growing elderly dependency threaten long-term growth.

Tamil Nadu’s demographic achievements (SRS 2023)

* Lowest birth rate in India: Crude Birth Rate at 12.0, compared to national average of 18.4.

* Infant health success: Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) just 9 per 1,000 live births, far below India’s 25.

* Improved gender balance: Sex ratio at birth rises to 933 females per 1,000 males (2021–23), above national average of 917.

* Low elderly death rate: 32.5 deaths per 1,000 persons aged 60+, the lowest in the country.

* High maternal care: Nearly 95% of births attended in medical institutions, among the best nationally.

* Population transition leader: TFR at 1.3 — already below replacement level, reflecting advanced demographic maturity.