Dramatic result likely in Spain elections

Madrid

With many people saying they are willing to shake up a political system they consider corrupt and unable to resolve Spain’s economic woes, the outcome is the most uncertain in the 40 years since the end of the Franco dictatorship and the return of democracy.

Voters undecided 

About one in three of the 36.5 million eligible voters are still undecided. Opinion polls show the ruling conservative People’s Party (PP) of Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy will win the vote but fall well short of an absolute majority.

The Socialists are expected to come second with anti-austerity party Podemos (“We Can”) and a second major newcomer, liberal Ciudadanos (“Citizens”), vying for the third place which would make them kingmakers in post-election talks. Ciudadanos and Podemos insiders say both parties are hoping to cut into the PP and the Socialists, vote bank.

Large economy 

That prediction makes any of three outcomes possible - either a right-wing or left-wing coalition government or a minority administration. Analysts say a stalemate would probably disrupt an economic reform programme that has helped pull Spain - the EU’s fifth-largest economy - out of recession and made inroads into a still high unemployment rate.

The Spanish constitution does not set a specific deadline to form a government after the election. Analysts say the negotiations to secure enough parliamentary support for a new prime minister to be picked could go over many weeks - and maybe even trigger another election.